Let's not panic. Yet.
By now, you might have heard that the Mets were swept by the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates over the weekend by a combined score of 30-4 - mind you, the Pirates were the lowest-scoring team in the majors when the series started - which was the most lopsided sweep of the Mets in their history. The Mets started June by winning 9 of 11 games; since then, they've gone 3-13, and their pitching staff, which was tremendous over the first couple months of the season, has crashed back to earth. Making things worse, the Mets are batting .217 with runners in scoring position, which is the worst in the NL - even worse than the 19-65 Rockies! - and second worst in baseball, behind only the Chicago White Sox. This combination, if it continues, will effectively torpedo what was a very promising season.
For the Mets, what was once a 5.5 game lead over the Phillies in the NL East has now become a 1.5 game deficit. With the Braves sitting 9 games back of the Mets in third, and the Miami Marlins a half-game behind them, the Mets are in an okay spot there. That said, there are currently seven teams within 4.5 games of each other in the wild card race, with the Braves and Marlins lurking in the shadows at 8 and 8.5 games out, respectively.
With the dangerous Brewers and Yankees up next, things could get even uglier in a hurry. But before we go all doom and gloom, there are a few things to consider that might give us Mets fans some solace.
The team's ace, Kodai Senga, is expected to return sometime in the month of July. The Mets' best pitcher last year, Sean Manaea, looked really good in his last rehab start in Syracuse, and may join the team within a couple of weeks, depending on whether the team thinks he needs at least one more start in the minors. Brooks Raley, who was their key lefty out of the bullpen last year, has been nearly unhittable during his rehab stint, and may land in Queens sometime after the All-Star break.
There are other reasons to feel a bit optimistic, especially when it comes to the minor league affiliates. Starting at the bottom, the A-level St. Lucie Mets won the first half of the season with a 34-31 record, and are off to a 6-3 record in the second half; the pitching staff leads the league in strikeouts (753) and opponent batting average (.213).
But wait, there's more! Brooklyn, the Mets' high-A affiliate, also clinched a playoff spot by winning the first half of their season, going 46-20, and are off to a 7-2 start in the second half. As a team, the Cyclones lead the league in OBP (.350) and are second in the league in batting average (.252) and OPS (.741); the pitching staff leads the league in strikeouts (803) and is second in ERA (3.07) and opponent BA (.207).
Hold on, we're not done yet! The AA affiliate, the Binghamton Rumble Ponies, ARE ALSO FIRST HALF CHAMPIONS! The Ponies wrapped up the first half with a 45-22 record - a whopping 10 games ahead of second-place Hartford - and are 4-2 in the second half. Binghamton is second in the league in batting average (.246) and OPS (.715) to go with a league-high 114 stolen bases, while the pitching staff has been elite - first in ERA (2.95), strikeouts (781), WHIP (1.08), opponent BA (.201) and have walked the fewest batters in the Eastern League (212).
The Ponies' ace - for now, before he's promoted - is the Mets' #4 prospect Jonah Tong, who's 6-3 on the season with a 1.73 ERA and 115 strikeouts over 73 innings, which is a deGrom-like 14.2 Ks per 9 innings. The lineup features some of the most promising position players in the Mets system, including #1 prospect Jett Williams, #3 Carson Benge and #6 Ryan Clifford.
Unfortunately, the Mets' AAA affiliate in Syracuse was not a first-half champion, finishing with a 31-44 record, but is 5-1 in the second half. Syracuse has been middle-of-the-pack both offensively and defensively, but they boast the team's #1 and #3 pitching prospects in Brandon Sproat and Nolan McLean, respectively - and will probably be joined soon by Tong, unless the organization decides to bypass Syracuse altogether, as they recently did with Jonathan Pintaro.
At long last, the Mets have a minor league system that is making noise, and might have some talent that can help provide a spark to the struggling major league club, whether that be directly or in a trade that brings some immediate help.
So let's take a deep breath, and see where we are at the All-Star break. Then we can decide if it's time to panic.